The nationality law stipulates that any resident with a valid permit who has lived in Portugal for five years can apply for citizenship after regularizing their immigrant status.
This provision includes many individuals who submitted expressions of interest three or four years ago and whose applications are only now being processed, according to Pedro Góis from the University of Coimbra, one of the authors of a study by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation presented in December.
“This could lead to a significant rise in the number of new citizens in the coming years,” Góis noted, although delays in processing citizenship applications remain a persistent issue.
Family reunification processes are also expected to contribute to the growing number of new Portuguese nationals.
Rui Costa Lopes, from the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) at the University of Lisbon, pointed out that many of these future Portuguese citizens do not intend to remain in the country. He explained that some chose Portugal to respond to stricter border policies across Europe, particularly in the United Kingdom following Brexit.
Moving to other countries
After acquiring Portuguese citizenship, many individuals may relocate to other countries, which could present new consular challenges for Portugal. “They will be considered Portuguese emigrant citizens,” cautioned Pedro Góis.
The researcher also emphasized that data suggests that many immigrants officially registered in Portugal already live and work in other European countries.
“There are certain professions that are particularly common among them, such as heavy vehicle drivers or construction workers subcontracted by Portuguese companies to operate in various European nations,” he explained.
“There are other Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs) across European countries that heavily rely on Portuguese labour as well as foreign labour residing in Portugal,” explained Pedro Góis.
He pointed out that this pattern was previously evident in the United Kingdom, where Portuguese nationals represented “the most incarcerated foreign population,” despite many being of Goan, Angolan, or Guinean origin, “all holding Portuguese passports.”
However, the lack of census data identifying ethnic and racial origins contributes to the invisibility of these immigrants who, though not fully integrated into society, are no longer classified as foreigners once they obtain Portuguese passports.
“If we aim to understand where ethnic minorities are in Portugal and design effective, targeted public policies, we need better ways to identify them,” remarked João António from the Catholic University.
“We must begin to take seriously the idea that integration does not conclude after five years once a passport is issued. Integration efforts must extend well beyond that point,” stressed Pedro Góis.
Decrease in Immigrants
In the coming years, the number of immigrants in Portugal is expected to drop significantly—not because they are leaving the country, but because many will have acquired Portuguese citizenship.
“This creates new challenges we must prepare for,” emphasized Rui Costa Lopes.
According to a study presented in December, 63% of respondents expressed a desire to see fewer immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, while 68% considered Portugal’s immigration policies to be “too permissive.” Additionally, 67.4% associated immigration with increased crime, and 68.9% believed it contributes to keeping wages low.
Paradoxically, 68% of respondents agreed that immigrants “are essential to the national economy.”
The survey revealed other complexities: 42% of participants overestimated the number of immigrants in Portugal, yet most supported extending their rights. These included voting rights (58.8%), easier naturalization processes (51.8%), and family reunification efforts (77.4%).
João António noted that the recent increase in immigration “happened very quickly over a short period,” and acknowledged that “the diverse opinions and sensitivities of the Portuguese population need to be addressed.”
Pedro Góis, however, pointed out a common misconception that many immigrants “arrived between 2022 and 2024,” when, in reality, they had arrived earlier and were only recently integrated into the system.
As a result, this year will likely see “a significant jump in the number of immigrants recognized in the data, even though the arrival of new emigrants is already slowing.”
The scientific director of the Migration Observatory also called for migration studies to be conducted “more frequently” to minimize the influence of specific public opinion contexts on the results.
This provision includes many individuals who submitted expressions of interest three or four years ago and whose applications are only now being processed, according to Pedro Góis from the University of Coimbra, one of the authors of a study by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation presented in December.
“This could lead to a significant rise in the number of new citizens in the coming years,” Góis noted, although delays in processing citizenship applications remain a persistent issue.
Family reunification processes are also expected to contribute to the growing number of new Portuguese nationals.
Rui Costa Lopes, from the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) at the University of Lisbon, pointed out that many of these future Portuguese citizens do not intend to remain in the country. He explained that some chose Portugal to respond to stricter border policies across Europe, particularly in the United Kingdom following Brexit.
Moving to other countries
After acquiring Portuguese citizenship, many individuals may relocate to other countries, which could present new consular challenges for Portugal. “They will be considered Portuguese emigrant citizens,” cautioned Pedro Góis.
The researcher also emphasized that data suggests that many immigrants officially registered in Portugal already live and work in other European countries.
“There are certain professions that are particularly common among them, such as heavy vehicle drivers or construction workers subcontracted by Portuguese companies to operate in various European nations,” he explained.
“There are other Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs) across European countries that heavily rely on Portuguese labour as well as foreign labour residing in Portugal,” explained Pedro Góis.
He pointed out that this pattern was previously evident in the United Kingdom, where Portuguese nationals represented “the most incarcerated foreign population,” despite many being of Goan, Angolan, or Guinean origin, “all holding Portuguese passports.”
However, the lack of census data identifying ethnic and racial origins contributes to the invisibility of these immigrants who, though not fully integrated into society, are no longer classified as foreigners once they obtain Portuguese passports.
“If we aim to understand where ethnic minorities are in Portugal and design effective, targeted public policies, we need better ways to identify them,” remarked João António from the Catholic University.
“We must begin to take seriously the idea that integration does not conclude after five years once a passport is issued. Integration efforts must extend well beyond that point,” stressed Pedro Góis.
Decrease in Immigrants
In the coming years, the number of immigrants in Portugal is expected to drop significantly—not because they are leaving the country, but because many will have acquired Portuguese citizenship.
“This creates new challenges we must prepare for,” emphasized Rui Costa Lopes.
According to a study presented in December, 63% of respondents expressed a desire to see fewer immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, while 68% considered Portugal’s immigration policies to be “too permissive.” Additionally, 67.4% associated immigration with increased crime, and 68.9% believed it contributes to keeping wages low.
Paradoxically, 68% of respondents agreed that immigrants “are essential to the national economy.”
The survey revealed other complexities: 42% of participants overestimated the number of immigrants in Portugal, yet most supported extending their rights. These included voting rights (58.8%), easier naturalization processes (51.8%), and family reunification efforts (77.4%).
João António noted that the recent increase in immigration “happened very quickly over a short period,” and acknowledged that “the diverse opinions and sensitivities of the Portuguese population need to be addressed.”
Pedro Góis, however, pointed out a common misconception that many immigrants “arrived between 2022 and 2024,” when, in reality, they had arrived earlier and were only recently integrated into the system.
As a result, this year will likely see “a significant jump in the number of immigrants recognized in the data, even though the arrival of new emigrants is already slowing.”
The scientific director of the Migration Observatory also called for migration studies to be conducted “more frequently” to minimize the influence of specific public opinion contexts on the results.